This was published 2 years ago
Opinion
Willoughby byelection shock should put the Liberal Party on notice
Alexandra Smith
State Political EditorIndependent candidate for Willoughby Larissa Penn ran her byelection campaign on a budget so small that her volunteers had home-made signs. Her opponent Tim James had the full force of the Liberal Party behind him.
Willoughby was never considered at risk by the NSW Liberals or Premier Dominic Perrottet, yet the community-minded Penn has put the once blue-ribbon seat on a knife-edge and it could swing in Penn’s favour. It’s a remarkable situation, and one that should put the party, both at a state and federal level, on notice.
Supporters of independent candidate Larissa Penn outside Gladys Berejiklian’s electoral office before the byelection campaign kicked off.
Just days before Saturday’s byelection, tens of thousands of Willoughby voters were sent letters from their long-term representative, Gladys Berejiklian, urging them to support James. On voting day, the party machine rolled in with its flying squad of Young Liberals who swarmed across all booths with glossy how-to-vote cards.
Meanwhile, Penn relied on parents from local north shore parents and citizens associations to spread the word about her campaign. Her manager printed corflute signs and left them on her porch for volunteers to collect if they could spare time to help.
Penn did not have the financial backing of the likes of Climate 200, the group bankrolling independents such as Allegra Spender in Wentworth and Kylea Tink in North Sydney. Rather, she ran a simple grassroots campaign based on community concern over the proposed western harbour tunnel and the northern beaches link, projects which were backed by Berejiklian.
There was a flurry of excitement on Tuesday night as updated preference flows in Willoughby showed a huge swing of 19.2 per cent away from the government. ABC election analyst Antony Green puts the seat as “still in doubt”, which should send an ominous message to Perrottet. Local issues are key, as is candidate selection.
Larissa Penn’s supporters campaign outside Gladys Berejiklian’s office.Credit: Facebook
Labor won Andrew Constance’s former seat of Bega with local obstetrician Michael Holland, who south coast locals joke has delivered half the babies in the electorate. Holland was able to authoritatively campaign on health issues. Similarly, the Liberal candidate for Strathfield, Bridget Sakr, who has a compelling backstory and strong community ties, was a wise pick for the government.
Strathfield is expected to stay in Labor’s hands but Sakr, whose 11-year-old daughter and her three cousins were killed by a drunk and drugged driver in 2020, managed to ensure the seat remains marginal ahead of next year’s state election. (Labor was also damaged by left-of-centre independent Elizabeth Farrelly, who only spent $35,000 on her campaign but still secured 9 per cent of first preferences).
But questions will be raised about whether the Liberals made the right choice in selecting Fiona Kotvojs for Bega and James in Willoughby. The result in Bega was not unexpected but a loss in Berejiklian’s former seat would be a bruising outcome for Perrottet. Berejiklian, always the loyal Liberal Party servant, did not want James as the candidate – she backed Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney to replace her – but did her best to get James over the line.
But the support of the popular former premier – Saint Gladys as she is described by her detractors – may not be enough. On pre-polling booths, volunteers for Penn and another independent, Penny Hackett, were urging people to “vote for the women”.
NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet and local candidate Tim James check out the Cammeray Public School sausage sizzle during the Willoughby byelection.Credit: Renee Nowytarger
Perrottet had concerns about James’s preselection, not because he doubted the ability of the long-term political aspirant, but he feared a male with conservative ideology could create another headache. The Premier has tried to shake the Liberal boys’ club image after a shaky start that saw his premiership initially defined by an ill-thought week of media opportunities, including pulling beer with blokes in a pub.
Perrottet has since supported some key policies for women, including a new economic review panel which will help Treasurer Matt Kean devise the NSW budget with a focus on women, as well as the state’s single biggest investment in domestic violence. He has also spoken about the need to get more women in Parliament (although this has fallen flat, with James being preselected for a safe Liberal seat over two female candidates).
Eager to ensure his handling of the Omicron outbreak was not to blame, Perrottet pointed the finger at local issues as the reason behind the Coalition’s poor performances, and they undoubtedly played a part. However, the slow response to the Black Summer fire recovery in Bega and backlash against a major tunnel project in Willoughby is on the government.
On Sunday, Tink – the federal independent hoping to unseat Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman – tweeted this warning: “To those interested in the Willoughby byelection numbers yesterday: don’t just look. Listen. That’s the voices of people who want politics done differently we’re hearing.”
It is a message Perrottet should take on board ahead of the 2023 poll. As Bega and Willoughby have shown, all seats are at risk, including from poorly resourced independents whose campaigns are run by mums and dads.
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