Opinion
Despite the FM PM every AM, it’s Dutton getting the listeners
David Crowe
Chief political correspondentThe return of federal parliament from the winter break should be a time for national leaders to display a burst of new energy after taking at least a little time off from political combat. But there was no sign of that energy this week, and that is a real problem for Anthony Albanese and the government when so many Australians are no longer listening.
The prime minister and his frontbench colleagues returned to their rehearsed lines in question time with all the enthusiasm of a school speech night just after parents had received a letter about a lice outbreak. They went through the motions without really connecting with voters about the household pain over the cost of living. They gave Australians no reason to sit up and pay attention.
Peter Dutton sparked controversy by calling for a halt on refugees from Gaza.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Yes, the government promised $3.6 billion to subsidise childcare wages, but this was an incremental spending burst when parents know that childcare is too expensive, too inflexible and needs structural change to deliver a genuine economic gain. The Labor pitch stuck to the usual pattern – a policy without boldness, sold without vigour.
Australians have emerged from the pandemic into a hard world of rising prices and falling growth. They spent the COVID era watching their political leaders every day to find out what was happening with lockdowns, vaccines, financial aid and virus test kits. Now they don’t have to watch their political leaders at all.
Sceptical about politicians at the best of times, voters will feel no need to engage with the message from Canberra when cabinet ministers deliver the same old lines about the economy with a positive spin that feels utterly at odds with the hardship in the real world.
Albanese is holding on to a slight edge over Peter Dutton in two-party terms, with support of about 50.5 per cent compared with 49.5 per cent in this week’s Resolve Political Monitor, based on preference flows at the last election. That is giving Labor a sense of confidence when combined with the big obstacles for the Liberals in the “teal” seats, making a Coalition majority so challenging.
The awkward fact, however, is that Dutton has taken a small lead over Albanese for three months in a row when voters are asked to name their preferred prime minister. The gap is only a single percentage point, but it shows that Dutton’s hard rhetoric about migration and the economy is resonating with many Australians.
Dutton has no solution on the cost of living at this point, and he only offers criticism, but his complaint seems more in touch with household reality than the government’s repeated assurances that things will get better. The danger for Labor is that the engagement deficit grows as voters switch off.
For all the time and effort the government puts into media, with daily television and radio appearances as well as making Albanese available for hokey interviews on FM radio, there is no sign of a dividend in the polls from this direct appeal to Australians. The FM PM has a lower net performance rating than he had a year ago. He is being walloped by economic reality.
The cabinet reshuffle helps the government regroup. Tony Burke showed this week that he can fend off Coalition attacks over migration as the new home affairs minister – while also proving that performance in parliament should never be overlooked as an essential skill for anyone on the frontbench. Murray Watt is a strong advocate in the employment portfolio. Clare O’Neil has a huge task as housing minister but is a good communicator with big policy plans.
Illustration: Simon LetchCredit:
Even so, the government looks underpowered when it needs to win back voters. One of the most popular figures in federal politics, Penny Wong, is naturally focused on foreign affairs and therefore out of the domestic debate. Another frontbencher with high approval ratings, Tanya Plibersek, has a key portfolio as environment minister but could be put to greater use for the Labor cause. Some in the caucus believe it was wrong to move Plibersek from education to environment after the election.
While Jim Chalmers dominates the economic debate, he has to accentuate the positive when so much of the news is negative. His opposite number, Angus Taylor, is bereft of policy other than a “back to basics” approach to economics and vague calls for lower spending. Yet the big policy decisions of the year, including the overhaul of the stage 3 tax cuts, have not improved Labor’s primary vote.
Bill Shorten, in contrast, has had a good week as the minister for everything. Shorten’s official title may be government services minister, but he weighed in on gambling advertising, the Middle East and, most pointedly, his complaint that the Reserve Bank could trigger a recession if it really thought the economy was too hot. Shorten knows how to deliver a sharp line. This seemed like a rebuke to RBA governor Michele Bullock, but sounded like a hint to Labor colleagues to muscle up on the economy.
One moment jolted parliament out of its torpor: when Dutton called for a halt to refugees from Gaza. He went too far, as I wrote elsewhere, but he stopped everything with a statement of belief that sent all sides to the barricades. This is his proven skill set, whether voters agree with him or not. He can electrify a debate. He gets voters to sit up and take notice.
Getting attention, of course, is not the same as getting results. The real test for Dutton comes when he puts more policy to voters. One of the mysteries about the next election is whether Dutton will engage voters as a divisive figure in the same way Scott Morrison did at the last election, with Albanese taking the dividends.
In a jaded electorate, victory may go to the leader who can energise the argument and offer Australians an agenda that demands their attention.
Meanwhile, the annual NAPLAN results showed that one-third of our school students are failing the minimum standards for maths and English. This dismal verdict on our school system passed with barely a murmur in parliament, apart from a single question to Education Minister Jason Clare. The government spent most of its time asking itself tedious questions about the jobs of the future, as if the schools of the future would be just fine.
If only someone had more energy to fix that.
David Crowe is chief political correspondent.
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